Weekly Update 10/25/2024: Earnings Season Continues
- AT&T reports another solid quarter
- Coca-Cola leans on pricing to boost sales
- Existing home sales struggle
- Continuing unemployment claims rise
- UPS returns to profits
Economic releases
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned properties last month fell 1% from a month earlier to a 3.8 million annualized rate. That was below the pace expected by economists in a survey from Bloomberg and neared an almost 14-year low. Many buyers and sellers seem to be waiting for financing costs to fall from their current levels. Mortgage rates fell to a two-year low in September as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2020. However, yields in general have climbed since then as traders priced in less aggressive Fed rate cuts going forward and inflation data suggests that price declines in the near future will be limited. While the supply of homes rose 23% from a year earlier, the total available for sale remains below pre-pandemic levels. At the current sales pace, available inventory would take 4.3 months to be cleared, which is the longest time interval to clear inventory in more than four years. Additionally, the median sales price rose 3% from a year ago to $404,500, making affordability a continuing concern especially for first-time buyers. In fact, such buyers made up just 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low. Sellers just are not financially incentivized with many having locked in mortgages below 6% making it more expensive to move. With cooler weather months approaching and holiday season activities taking precedent, housing transactions are expected to slow following seasonal patterns as usual through the first part of next year.
New home sales data from the Commerce Department was released yesterday. Sales of new single-family homes rose 4.1% last month to a 738,000 annualized pace. That beat the consensus estimate by 18,000. The question is if this bump will be short-lived or sustainable. Since new home sales are tabulated once contracts are signed, September’s boost could be attributed to mortgage rates falling that month. As mentioned above, yields have climbed higher in the interim potentially denting current demand for new structures. Existing home sales, by contrast, are totaled when the transaction is closed which may occur weeks to months after a deal is struck. While the median sales price of a new home, at $426,300, remains little changed from a year ago, it is still nearly 30% higher than pre-pandemic prices. Builders are trying to work down inventories thanks to a boom in construction during the pandemic recovery. Buying incentives in the form of discounts or mortgage-rate buydowns are being used as sweeteners.
Economic activity was flat across most of the U.S. according to the monthly Fed Beige Book survey of regional business conditions. The insights are based on information gathered on or before October 11. “On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all districts since early September, though two districts reported modest growth,” the report said. “Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives.” Additionally, the survey pointed to many election references highlighting the uncertainty the close contest is causing for businesses. As a result, managers are delaying hiring and purchasing decisions.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 15,000 to 227,000 in the week ended October 19 according to the Labor Department. A Bloomberg survey of economists had predicted a gain of 242,000 but the effects of Hurricane Helene seem to be dissipating quicker than feared according to some economists. However, continuing claims, which tracks the unemployed who continue to receive state benefits, rose to nearly 1.9 million in the week ended October 12, the most in nearly three years. As we suggested last week, these numbers have several wrinkles to unfold. Besides the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, a weeks-long strike at Boeing is likely leading to layoffs at many of its idle suppliers thereby boosting numbers. The strike may lead to layoffs at Boeing itself should it continue for several weeks. Moreover, we are about a month away from the holidays which will have its own season abnormalities to decipher once they arrive. So, the labor market may actually be stronger than indicated. But then again, maybe not. Not to say these numbers should be ignored, but deciphering trends will be harder, and investors should refrain from drawing sweeping conclusions.
Company Events
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